Isaiah Likely Is Finally Out of Mark Andrews’ Shadow

By Quan

For four years, Isaiah Likely has been the fantasy football equivalent of a royal understudy. You knew he had the talent. You saw the flashes of brilliance every time the starter caught a cold. But as long as Mark Andrews was breathing and wearing purple, Likely was permanently relegated to the bench, a “contingent upside” stash clogging up your dynasty roster while you prayed for a trade. Andrews’ sustained run as one of the NFL’s premier tight ends made consistent fantasy relevance nearly impossible for anyone playing behind him, leaving managers to hold Likely through three different rookie drafts while their league-mates mocked their patience.

Well, the wait is over.

Like Andy Dufresne crawling through five hundred yards of foul-smelling darkness to find freedom on the other side, Likely has finally escaped the shadow of Mark Andrews. He hit free agency in March 2026 and immediately secured a massive three-year, $40 million contract from the New York Giants.

This isn’t just a change of scenery. It’s a fundamental shift in the fantasy landscape. The convergence of a massive financial commitment, a reunion with head coach John Harbaugh, a devastating injury to the team’s top wide receiver, and a tailor-made offensive scheme has created the perfect storm. Isaiah Likely isn’t just a sleeper anymore. He is the premier tight end breakout of the 2026 fantasy football season.

The $40 Million Escape Room

Let’s start with the money, because in the NFL, money is the loudest megaphone in the building.

The Giants didn’t hand Likely $40 million—with incentives pushing the maximum value to $47.5 million—to be a glorified run-blocker or a decoy. You don’t allocate that kind of cap space to a tight end unless you plan to make him a significant part of your passing attack. NFL general managers don’t write those kinds of checks for guys they plan to use primarily in pass protection on third down.

That doesn’t automatically make Likely the Giants’ No. 1 target, especially once Malik Nabers is healthy, but it strongly suggests that New York expects him to occupy a prominent position in the passing-game hierarchy. Finishing second or third on the team in targets is entirely realistic when you account for both the financial commitment and the available competition across the wide receiver and tight end rooms.

We already know what Likely looks like when he’s treated as a primary weapon. In the nine career games he played without Mark Andrews in Baltimore, Likely was an absolute menace. He racked up 31 receptions for 453 receiving yards and six touchdowns. If you extrapolate that production across a full 17-game season as a primary starter, you get a pace of roughly 58 catches, 855 yards, and 11 touchdowns.

Those aren’t just “good for a tight end” numbers. Those are elite, difference-making fantasy metrics that rival the top tier of the position. The sample is limited because Andrews rarely left the lineup for long, but it is the most relevant evidence we have of what Likely can do when he isn’t playing behind a superstar. He doesn’t merely survive when given the runway; he dominates. Now, he has a runway that looks like an international airport tarmac.

The Malik Nabers Vacuum

To understand just how high Likely’s ceiling is in 2026, we have to talk about the elephant in the medical tent: Malik Nabers.

Before his knee exploded in Week 4 of the 2025 season, Nabers was looking like a generational alpha. He had 18 receptions for 271 yards and two touchdowns in just four games. He was the undisputed engine of the Giants’ passing game. But the reality of a torn ACL and partially torn lateral meniscus is brutal, and his recovery has encountered an additional complication.

In May 2026, Nabers underwent a secondary “cleanup” procedure to remove scar tissue that was restricting his knee extension. John Harbaugh can stand at a podium in mid-July and pump out all the optimistic coach-speak he wants about Nabers being “in a good place right now” and “working his way into practice,” but fantasy managers shouldn’t treat his Week 1 availability or immediate return to a full workload as guaranteed.

The cleanup procedure introduced another layer of uncertainty to an already difficult recovery. While the Giants remain hopeful that Nabers will be ready near the beginning of the season, there is a legitimate possibility that he misses time early or is eased back into action before returning to his usual workload. Even when he does return, it can take time for a player to regain his full explosiveness after a secondary procedure intended to address scar tissue and restore normal knee function.

Nature abhors a vacuum, and fantasy football target shares are no different. With Wan’Dale Robinson leaving in free agency and Nabers severely compromised, the Giants’ passing tree is completely barren. Someone has to catch the football. That someone is Isaiah Likely.

The 12-Personnel Advantage

If you’re worried about internal competition from Theo Johnson, you’re fundamentally misunderstanding the offensive scheme John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy appear to be building in New York.

Yes, Johnson had a solid sophomore campaign in 2025. The former fourth-round pick hauled in 45 receptions for 528 yards and five touchdowns on 74 targets, boasting a 60.8% catch rate and 11.7 yards per reception. He’s a massive human being with the frame to be a traditional in-line blocker and red-zone threat. But Johnson is not necessarily a threat to Likely’s volume. He is the complement that makes Likely’s volume possible.

Harbaugh is laying the groundwork for a heavy 12-personnel assault—one running back and two tight ends. By deploying both Likely and Johnson simultaneously, the Giants can force opposing defensive coordinators into an impossible dilemma. If a defense plays heavy with bigger linebackers to stop the run, the Giants can split Likely out wide or into the slot and let him cook a plodding linebacker in space. If the defense stays in nickel to protect against the pass, the Giants can run gap-blocking schemes directly at an undersized defensive back.

Rather than replacing Wan’Dale Robinson with another conventional slot receiver, the Giants appear capable of redirecting a meaningful portion of that vacated role toward Likely. He can operate as the primary “move” tight end, lining up in the slot or away from the formation to expose the middle of the field, while Johnson handles more of the traditional in-line work and attacks down the seam.

But make no mistake: the $40 million commitment will carry substantial weight in the passing-game hierarchy. Malik Nabers remains the franchise’s premier receiving asset when healthy, but the Giants didn’t make Likely one of their largest offensive investments of the offseason to bury him behind Theo Johnson or treat him as a situational accessory. The money strongly indicates that Likely will be one of the primary reads in this offense.

The Jaxson Dart Factor

A tight end is only as good as the quarterback delivering him the football, which brings us to Jaxson Dart.

The Giants spent the 25th overall pick on Dart in the 2025 NFL Draft, and his rookie season showed exactly why Harbaugh trusts him to run this new offense. Dart threw for 2,272 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions across 14 games, completing 63.7% of his passes and posting a highly respectable 91.7 passer rating.

But it’s Dart’s legs that unlock Likely’s fantasy ceiling. Dart racked up 487 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns in 2025. When you have a highly athletic, dual-threat quarterback who can “live in a lot of different worlds,” it forces linebackers to freeze on RPOs and play-action fakes. When those linebackers step forward to respect Dart’s rushing ability, the intermediate area of the field—exactly where a move tight end like Likely operates—can open behind them.

Likely already knows the culture. More importantly, he understands Harbaugh’s philosophy, expectations, and commitment to building a physical offense around versatile personnel. He recently praised the reunion with his former coach, noting that the offense is going to be “physical” and “violent.”

Harbaugh’s Ravens consistently ranked among the NFL’s heavier users of 12-personnel packages, and Likely is rejoining a coach who already understands exactly how to deploy his skill set. He will still have to learn Matt Nagy’s terminology and the details of a new offensive system, but he isn’t arriving as a stranger whose new coaching staff must first figure out what he can do. He is catching passes from a quarterback whose mobility and willingness to attack the middle of the field should complement his route tree beautifully.

The Verdict: Draft-Day and Dynasty Strategy

We are staring at a player with elite efficiency metrics, a massive new contract, a promising offensive fit, and an immediate opportunity created by uncertainty elsewhere on the depth chart.

For Redraft Leagues

Likely is actively rising in ADP, but he remains a premium mid-round breakout target. With Nabers’ early-season availability uncertain, Likely projects as one of Jaxson Dart’s primary passing options right out of the gate. You aren’t simply drafting a tight end; you’re drafting a player with a realistic path to finishing second or third on his team in targets at a mid-round price.

His projected role gives him one of the more stable volume profiles among the mid-round tight ends, while his history of converting expanded opportunities into touchdowns gives him legitimate difference-making upside. Draft him aggressively before your league-mates fully adjust to what the Giants’ investment and roster construction are telling us.

For Dynasty Leagues

Likely is a must-acquire asset, but the discount has an expiration date. He has officially graduated from a “what-if” backup to a locked-in starter. He is tied to a promising sophomore quarterback and reunited with a head coach who already knows how to maximize his unusual combination of size, athleticism, and alignment versatility.

If the manager holding Likely in your dynasty league still views him as a mid-tier asset because of his years behind Mark Andrews, send the trade offer right now. Once fantasy managers see how prominently he is featured in the Giants’ offense, the price could climb beyond what it costs to acquire him today.

Stop waiting for the breakout. The breakout is already fully funded and living in New York.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is Theo Johnson going to steal red-zone targets from Isaiah Likely?

Johnson’s massive frame makes him a natural red-zone presence, and he will receive opportunities of his own. However, the Giants’ ability to use both players simultaneously in 12-personnel packages means this doesn’t have to be a zero-sum competition. Likely’s $40 million contract and expected role as the primary move tight end should keep him near the center of the passing attack, especially while Malik Nabers is unavailable or working his way back toward a full workload.

How does Malik Nabers’ eventual return impact Likely’s fantasy value?

Nabers’ May 2026 cleanup procedure creates legitimate uncertainty surrounding the beginning of his season, giving Likely an early opportunity to establish himself as one of Jaxson Dart’s most trusted targets. Nabers will reclaim a major share of the offense when healthy, but Likely should still have every opportunity to remain one of the Giants’ primary passing-game weapons after he returns.

The Giants’ financial investment, Likely’s alignment versatility, and the possibility of frequent two-tight-end formations make this more than a temporary injury-based opportunity.

Should I prioritize Likely over established veteran tight ends in redraft?

Yes, depending on the price. Aging veterans can provide a known floor, but that floor is often paired with a limited path to becoming a genuine weekly difference-maker. Likely’s 17-game pace without Mark Andrews—approximately 58 catches, 855 yards, and 11 touchdowns—demonstrates that he possesses top-tier positional upside when given meaningful volume.

That pace is not a guarantee, but it shows what he has already done when allowed to function as a featured receiving tight end. In fantasy football, ceiling matters, and Likely’s combination of talent, opportunity, contract security, and quarterback fit gives him one of the largest ceilings available outside the position’s established elite.