Carolina’s RB Room Is a Waiting Game. Jonathon Brooks Is the Prize.

By Quan

In 2024, Chuba Hubbard rumbled for 1,195 yards on a robust 4.8 yards per carry. Just one year later, his efficiency plummeted to a pedestrian 3.8 yards per carry on nearly half the volume. Yet the fantasy market is currently drafting him roughly 40 picks ahead of the highest-upside running back on the Carolina Panthers' roster.

Welcome to the ambiguity of the 2026 Carolina backfield, where early-season floor and late-season ceiling are locked in a cage match. Head coach Dave Canales has shown a willingness to lean on the run when the offense allows it, but deciphering who actually gets the high-value touches requires looking past the September depth chart. If you want to win a championship, you don't draft only for Week 1. You draft for the playoffs. And right now, the market is mispricing the entire Carolina backfield.

The Anatomy of a Midseason Takeover

When the Panthers spent the 46th overall pick on Jonathon Brooks in the 2024 NFL Draft, they weren't drafting a situational role player. They were drafting a cornerstone. But the football gods have a twisted sense of humor. Brooks played exactly three games as a rookie, logging a meager nine carries for 22 yards and catching three passes for 23 yards, before a catastrophic torn right ACL in Week 14 ended his season. The recovery was grueling. It cost him the entirety of the 2025 campaign. For a full calendar year, the fantasy industry largely forgot he existed.

But out of sight should never mean out of mind. Now entering Year 3 of his standard four-year rookie contract, Brooks has been cleared for offseason work. And the early drumbeat out of 2026 OTAs isn't just positive. It's meaningful.

Canales is openly talking up his young back, specifically highlighting his dual-threat capability. When a head coach points out that half of a player's college highlights were screen passes and downfield routes, then talks about finding different packages to get him involved, you listen. Second-year defensive lineman Nic Scourton echoed the sentiment, telling Panthers.com that Brooks is "getting in and out of these cuts" with ridiculous quickness. The early OTA reports are encouraging. Carolina still needs to protect a twice-repaired knee, but the movement skills are showing up again.

The Panthers also did not make a major investment to replace Rico Dowdle after he left for Pittsburgh. That does not prove Brooks is walking into a bell-cow role. It does, however, suggest Carolina is comfortable giving him a real runway if he proves healthy.

But here is where the fantasy edge lives: the timeline. The Panthers are exercising appropriate caution with Brooks' twice-repaired knee. They are holding him out of some 11-on-11 drills during OTAs, ensuring he doesn't suffer a setback before the real bullets start flying. That cautious ramp-up is suppressing the market's willingness to fully buy in.

Brooks is currently priced at RB37 (111.0 overall) in FantasyPros ADP, while RotoGPT's FantasyPros-powered redraft projection lands him at RB46 in Standard Redraft. That matters, but it doesn't kill the case. Projection models are naturally conservative with players coming off missed seasons, especially when the early-season workload is uncertain. Brooks is not a clean September volume play. He is a playoff-upside stash whose value comes from the possibility that Carolina's backfield looks very different by November.

This is not the kind of pick you make because the spreadsheet screams value. This is the kind of pick you make because the spreadsheet is not built to dream in December.

In dynasty, the picture is cleaner. RotoGPT has Brooks at RB31 in Standard Dynasty, which better reflects the long-term bet: a Day 2 back with three-down traits, minimal NFL tread, and a path to becoming the most explosive player in Carolina's backfield if the knee holds up.

You aren't drafting him to start in Week 1. You're drafting him to matter when the fake points start becoming real money.

The Incumbent Floor, And Why It's Crumbling

On the other side of the depth chart, we have the incumbent: Chuba Hubbard. The former 2021 fourth-round pick, 126th overall, is entering the second year of a four-year contract extension he signed in 2024. Canales continues to view Hubbard as a foundational piece, noting that he embodies the identity the team wants to build.

The Panthers will almost certainly lean heavily on their veteran out of the gate. Expect Hubbard to command something like 60% of the backfield workload in September, leaving Brooks to operate in a change-of-pace capacity while he gets his sea legs. If you draft Hubbard at his current RB27 (71.0 overall) price tag, you are paying a premium for September volume. You are buying a floor.

But the underlying data is screaming at you to be careful. Hubbard's 2025 season was a massive regression.

In 2024, Hubbard was a workhorse, posting 250 attempts for 1,195 yards (4.8 YPC) and 10 touchdowns. He was efficient, reliable, and highly productive. But in 2025, his volume dropped to just 134 attempts, and his production plummeted to 511 yards (3.8 YPC) and one touchdown.

Some of that was injury and context driven, with Dowdle taking over after Hubbard was sidelined. That matters. We don't need to pretend Hubbard suddenly forgot how to play football. But the year-over-year decline still matters for projecting 2026 touch security. Relying on a veteran who just lost nearly half his workload, watched his touchdown total evaporate from 10 down to one, and saw his efficiency bleed out by a full yard per carry is dangerous business when the team also has a healthier, younger, more explosive back waiting behind him.

You're investing in a Blockbuster franchise because people still like movies. The industry is moving on, and so should you. Hubbard's veteran status and scheme familiarity will keep him on the field early. That does not mean his grip on the job is ironclad.

Ignore the Noise: The Roster Cloggers

Every ambiguous backfield has a few names that muddy the waters for casual managers. In Carolina, those names are AJ Dillon and Trevor Etienne. Do not let them distract you. They are roster noise.

Let's start with Dillon. The Panthers signed him to a one-year, $1,402,500 contract in March 2026. If that number sounds low, wait until you see the guarantees: $100,000. He was brought in to absorb some of the physical depth snaps vacated by Dowdle, but Dillon arrives in Carolina with the kind of baggage usually reserved for a season of The White Lotus. He played just seven games for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2025, logging 12 carries for 60 yards and three catches for 21 yards before getting buried enough to become a healthy scratch down the stretch.

He is an underwhelming depth piece, not a threat to Brooks.

Then there's Etienne. Drafted in the fourth round, 114th overall, in 2025, his offensive role is shrinking fast. He managed just 20 carries for 94 yards (4.7 YPC) and three catches for 13 yards as a rookie. Right now, he is primarily fighting to keep his job as a returner after logging 51 total returns for 896 return yards last year, including 31 kick returns for 733 yards and 20 punt returns for 163 yards.

Reports indicate Etienne appears to be behind Hubbard and Brooks on the depth chart. He is fighting for his life on special teams like he's in The Hunger Games, not stealing third-down snaps from the team's most explosive playmaker.

The Dual-Format Blueprint

Your strategy here depends entirely on your format, but the target remains the same. The data paints a clear picture of two running backs moving in opposite directions. Hubbard is trying to hold the line. Brooks is trying to break through it.

In redraft leagues, the strategy is straightforward, but it requires discipline. The 40-pick gap between Hubbard and Brooks is not just about who projects better in September. Hubbard should project better in September. He is the incumbent. He has the trust. He has the contract. He has the early-down runway.

That is exactly why the decision gets interesting.

Let your league-mates draft Hubbard in the sixth round. They will feel incredibly smart in Week 2 when Hubbard gets 18 carries for 65 yards and falls into the end zone. Let them have their fleeting moment of joy. You take Brooks later. You stash him on your bench. You exercise the one trait most fantasy managers lack: patience.

Brooks is not a projection-based bargain. He is a calendar bet: survive September, profit if the depth chart tells the truth by November. He is the kind of player whose full-season projection may look modest because the model has to account for missed time, ramp-up risk, and an uncertain September role. But fantasy championships are not played in September. They are played when the backfields have sorted themselves out, the committees have cracked, and the patient managers suddenly have a fresh explosive back stepping into meaningful touches.

Draft Brooks, embrace the September ramp-up, and unleash him when the bye weeks hit and your opponents are scrambling for viable starters.

In dynasty formats, Brooks is a priority hold or buy-low target. Dynasty managers are notoriously impatient. They draft a rookie, wait a year, and if he doesn't immediately turn into a Hall of Famer, they panic. Brooks is the perfect beneficiary of this prospect fatigue. He is entering Year 3 of his rookie deal, but in football terms, he is practically a newborn. He has exactly nine NFL carries on his resume. He has taken almost no professional punishment. His receiving profile gives him a three-down ceiling that Hubbard simply lacks.

With RotoGPT ranking Brooks as RB31 in Standard Dynasty, the long-term case is much cleaner than the redraft projection. The redraft projection is worried about timeline. Dynasty should be worried about talent, role trajectory, and price before the breakout becomes obvious.

Hubbard, meanwhile, is a textbook sell-high. Find a contending roster that is terrified of its early-season running back depth. Sell them the narrative that Hubbard is the starter. Ship him off for future draft capital before his touch share starts wobbling in November. You want to be the one selling the September production, not the one left holding the bag in December.

As for Etienne? Despite his Day 3 draft capital, he is a roster clogger. Drop him, or throw him into trades as a sweetener to get a bigger deal done. His relegation to special teams makes him useless for most dynasty rosters unless your league heavily rewards return yardage.

Fantasy championships aren't won by drafting the guy who gets 15 carries in Week 1 and fades into obscurity by Thanksgiving. They are won by identifying elite talent suppressed by temporary circumstances. The Panthers' backfield is going to look different in November than it does in September.

Buy the talent. Embrace the ramp-up. Let Jonathon Brooks be the bet your league was too impatient to make.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will Jonathon Brooks take over the starting job?

Expect a gradual ramp-up. Hubbard is the favorite to handle the larger share of the backfield early in the season, potentially something around 60% of the workload while Brooks is worked in carefully. But Brooks' superior receiving profile, Day 2 draft capital, and explosive athletic profile make him the favorite to push for a much larger role by midseason if his knee holds up.

Should I drop Trevor Etienne in dynasty leagues?

Yes, unless your league heavily rewards kick return yardage. Etienne was a Day 3 pick in 2025 who logged just 20 carries as a rookie, and reports indicate he appears to be behind Hubbard and Brooks on the depth chart. His path to offensive relevance is too thin for most dynasty benches.

Is AJ Dillon worth a late-round flier in redraft leagues?

No. Dillon was signed to a near-minimum contract with only $100,000 guaranteed. After logging just 12 carries for the Eagles in 2025 and getting buried enough to become a healthy scratch down the stretch, he is purely an emergency depth piece for Carolina and holds no standalone fantasy value.