Bhayshul Tuten Is a Bet on Talent, Not Clarity

By Quan

When Travis Etienne packed his bags this offseason, he left behind a statistical crater in Jacksonville. We are talking about a vacated workload of 260 carries, 1,107 rushing yards, 36 receptions, and 13 total touchdowns. That is 1,399 total vacated scrimmage yards and a massive 296-touch void suddenly up for grabs in a Liam Coen offense that ranked sixth in the NFL in scoring last year, hanging 27.9 points per game on opposing defenses. That represents a 48.1% year-over-year scoring increase from the previous season’s 18.8 points per game, transforming Jacksonville into one of the most lucrative fantasy environments in the league.

It is the exact type of high-scoring ecosystem that makes fantasy managers start hunting for discounted touches. We see a vacant depth chart and immediately try to shove the youngest, fastest player into the RB1 slot, assuming the coaching staff sees the game exactly the way our spreadsheets do. Enter Bhayshul Tuten.

The 2025 fourth-round pick (104th overall) has become one of the offseason’s loudest hype trains. Managers are smashing the draft button with the hope that he simply inherits Etienne’s bell-cow role without missing a beat. But banking on a Day 3 running back to seamlessly absorb 300 touches is like trusting gas station sushi—sometimes you get away with it, but usually, you just end up sick and full of regret. Let’s look at why treating Tuten like the automatic winner of this backfield is one of the easiest mistakes to make in the 2026 draft season.

The Analytics Darling vs. The Depth Chart Reality

If you were to build a running back in a lab specifically to make fantasy Twitter lose its collective mind, he would look exactly like Tuten. The 23-year-old, 5-foot-9, 209-pound back boasts an elite 9.56 Relative Athletic Score, proving he has the explosive physical tools to play at the NFL level. During his rookie campaign, he flashed that potential, turning 83 carries into 307 rushing yards (3.7 YPC) and five touchdowns across 15 games. He finished the year with 386 total scrimmage yards.

More importantly for the spreadsheet warriors, Tuten flashed legitimate contact-balance juice as a rookie. Per PFF, he averaged 3.2 yards after contact per attempt in limited work. He doesn’t just run fast; he runs through people. When you combine that efficiency with his college profile—where 54% of his runs were classified as breakaway runs—it’s easy to see why the community is drooling. He possesses the exact kind of home-run ability that can flip a fantasy matchup on a single touch.

Coen has only poured gasoline on the hype fire this spring. Coen noted that he liked the way Tuten has looked compared to last year, while Jaguars.com framed a faster, more comfortable Tuten as a “dangerous proposition” for opposing defenses. When a young back with explosive traits starts getting that kind of spring buzz in a top-six scoring offense, the fantasy market naturally reacts by pushing him up draft boards.

But there is a massive disconnect between the fantasy community’s coronation of Tuten and the reality being reported by local beat writers. The Jaguars didn’t just hand Tuten the keys to the kingdom and tell him to go win you a fantasy championship. They went shopping.

The $10 Million Elephant in the Room

While fantasy managers were busy crowning Tuten the undisputed RB1 of Duval County, Jacksonville’s front office quietly handed veteran Chris Rodriguez Jr. a two-year, $10 million contract with $6.2 million guaranteed. Let me be crystal clear: NFL teams do not give a running back $6.2 million in guaranteed money to hold a clipboard and hand out Gatorade. That is real role money for an early-down grinder, and it signals a definitive shift in how the Jaguars plan to operate their rushing attack.

Rodriguez is a certified problem for Tuten’s volume projection. Last season with Washington, Rodriguez handled 112 carries for 500 rushing yards (a highly efficient 4.5 YPC) and six touchdowns in 13 games. His advanced metrics are terrifying if you hold Tuten shares. Rodriguez averaged roughly 3.0 yards after contact per attempt, placing him near the very top of the league, and forced a broken tackle every 8.6 carries, which ranked fourth. He is a sledgehammer, and the Jaguars paid a premium to bring that sledgehammer to Florida.

But the real threat isn’t just the contract or the metrics. It’s the history.

In 2021, Coen was the offensive coordinator at Kentucky. His lead back? Rodriguez. Coen fed him 225 carries for 1,379 rushing yards (6.1 YPC) and nine touchdowns. When Coen left Kentucky, his parting words about Rodriguez were incredibly telling: “I’m really going to miss being able to hand the ball off and know you would get four yards. A lot of times, that wasn’t scheme. That was Chris.”

Coen is looking at Rodriguez the way Tom Wambsgans looked at Greg Hirsch—he knows exactly how to use him to do the dirty work. Coaches trust the guys they know, and Coen knows Rodriguez can get him tough yards when the offensive line breaks down. That built-in trust equity is something Tuten simply does not have yet.

The "RTA" Nightmare for Fantasy Managers

If you’re drafting Tuten as a foundational RB2, you are willfully ignoring the flashing red lights. Local reporters are aggressively pumping the brakes on the bell-cow narrative. According to Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union, Rodriguez could be ahead of Tuten in the early backfield order, with Jacksonville leaning on an “RTA” rotation: Rodriguez-Tuten-Allen.

Mia O’Brien echoed that sentiment during OTAs, reporting that Rodriguez has been central to conversations about fixing the run game and is expected to be a featured member of the committee. When the people standing on the practice field every day are telling you who the team plans to feature, it is generally a good idea to listen to them instead of your league-mate who just discovered what a Relative Athletic Score is.

Then there is the third-down complication. LeQuint Allen Jr., a 2025 seventh-round pick, is the passing-down complication because Jacksonville already used him in protection and route-running situations as a rookie. If Allen is the trusted protector for Trevor Lawrence on passing downs, and Rodriguez is the trusted thumper on early downs, Tuten’s path to a 65% snap share completely evaporates. He becomes the middle child of a committee—too small for the goal-line plunging, not trusted enough for third-down blitz pickup.

Coen has made it clear that fixing the physical run game is a priority after Jacksonville’s rushing attack became one of the underlying problems of the offense. He wants a multi-headed, hot-hand committee that bludgeons defenses over four quarters. Furthermore, Tuten (Round 4) and Rodriguez (Round 6) are both Day 3 draft picks. Teams are usually slower to treat Day 3 backs as unquestioned franchise-volume players unless the back forces the issue or the depth chart collapses. They view them as rotational pieces until someone proves otherwise.

How to Play the Jaguars Backfield in 2026

So, what do we actually do with this mess?

In redraft leagues, the price changes the conversation. Sleeper ADP has Tuten going around 150th overall, roughly in the RB25–26 range in that data set, while RotoGPT has him ranked as the RB32. That is still a gap, but it is not the kind of screaming overpay that makes him an auto-fade.

At that price, Tuten is perfectly playable as a Zero-RB swing. The acquisition cost is low, the explosive profile is real, and the upside is obvious if Rodriguez misses time or the committee tilts in Tuten’s direction. The mistake is not drafting Tuten. The mistake is drafting him and mentally penciling him in as the clean Etienne replacement.

He should not be treated like a foundational RB2 just because Etienne left town. He is a volatile committee back with spike-week upside. If you draft him around pick 150, you are buying a lottery ticket in a good offense. That is fine. Just do not pretend the ticket has already cashed.

In dynasty formats, RotoGPT has Tuten ranked as the RB28, which is a much more sober read on the player than the offseason hype suggests. He is explosive, young, and attached to a valuable offense, but he is not insulated from committee risk.

If your league is valuing him like a locked-in top-20 dynasty back because Etienne left town, that is your sell-high window. You are not selling because Tuten is bad. You are selling because the market may be pricing him as if the Rodriguez/Tuten/Allen committee does not exist.

The fantasy football community loves a clean narrative. “Player A leaves, Player B gets all the touches.” But the NFL doesn’t operate on clean narratives. Coen is building a physical, rotational backfield designed to keep his backs fresh and his franchise quarterback upright. Tuten has the talent to break off explosive plays, but volume is the undisputed king of fantasy football. Don’t pay bell-cow prices for a committee back, and don’t let a 9.56 RAS blind you to a $10 million veteran standing right in front of him.

Quick-Fire Q&A

Is Bhayshul Tuten a bust at his current ADP?

No, but he is not the free square the hype makes him feel like. At his current Sleeper ADP around 150th overall, roughly in the RB25–26 range, Tuten is playable as an upside pick. He becomes a problem only if you draft him expecting him to replicate Travis Etienne’s 296-touch workload from last season. Draft him as an upside bench piece, not a locked-in starter.

Why is Chris Rodriguez Jr. such a threat to Tuten?

Beyond the two-year, $10 million contract ($6.2 million guaranteed) the Jaguars gave him, Rodriguez has a deep history with Coen. Coen fed Rodriguez 225 carries for 1,379 yards at Kentucky in 2021 and trusts him implicitly on early downs.

Does LeQuint Allen Jr. have standalone fantasy value?

No. Allen’s value is purely as a real-life pass blocker. His presence on the field is a negative for Tuten’s receiving upside, but Allen won’t see enough touches to warrant a roster spot in standard fantasy leagues.